Socio-Political Dynamics, Institutional Fragmentation, and Energy Poverty Governance Framework for Nigeria's Niger Delta Region

Abstract

Despite the region's significant hydrocarbon riches and subsequent national energy reforms, this research looks at how institutional fragmentation, elite capture, and multi-level governance failures maintain energy poverty in Nigeria's Niger Delta (South-South and South-East zones). Grounded in Energy Justice Theory, Political Economy Analysis (PEA), and Multi-Level Governance (MLG) frameworks, the paper adopts a mixed-methods design integrating 45 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, policy document analysis, and quantitative Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression analysis from 347 valid survey responses. Cognitive mapping with 12 expert panellists validated the DNA Governance Framework. Energy poverty was most strongly predicted by elite capture (β = 0.61; relative importance = 38.4%), followed by institutional fragmentation (29.7%) and deficiencies in governance accountability (21.3%). Together, these factors explained 89.4% of the socio-political variation (R² = 0.613). A regulatory governance contradiction was found: for more than 75% of respondents, Nigeria's official Regulatory Governance Index score of 0.897 coexists with fewer than six daily grid-supply hours. Without corresponding capacity-building, the Electricity Act of 2023 increased fragmentation through decentralisation. The Nigeria Energy Poverty Index (NEPI) aggregate scores of 0.38 (South-South) and 0.41 (South-East) confirm governance as the main factor. The study makes three unique contributions: the first contextualised, multidimensional Nigeria Energy Poverty Index (NEPI) calibrated to local political economy realities; the novel theoretical construct of the "regulatory governance paradox" for resource-rich, energy-poor states; and the validated DNA Governance Framework as a sequential reform tool for development partners, policymakers, and energy regulators throughout sub-Saharan Africa.