A Spatial Analysis of Thunderstorms and Flight Disruptions in Some Nigerian Airports from 1989–2023

Abstract

This study examines the spatial patterns of thunderstorms and
their relationship with flight disruptions in selected Nigerian
international airports over a 35-year period (1989–2023).
Focusing on two core objectives—identifying spatial variations
in thunderstorms across Nigeria's major airports and
ascertaining the number of flights cancelled, delayed, diverted,
or crashed due to thunderstorms—an ex post facto research
design was employed. Data sources included primary data from
structured questionnaires administered to aviation personnel
and directors of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria
(FAAN), as well as secondary data comprising thunderstorm
records and flight logs sourced from the Nigerian
Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Nigerian Airspace
Management Agency (NAMA). Six international airports with
at least 35 years of continuous operation were purposively
selected for analysis. Spatial interpolation using kriging in
ArcGIS was utilized to map thunderstorm distributions, while
time series analysis assessed trends over the study period.
Descriptive statistics summarized the impact on flight
operations. Hypothesis testing using one-way ANOVA revealed
no statistically significant spatial variation in thunderstorm occurrences across the airports (F = 1.604, p > 0.05). Multiple
linear regression analysis indicated that thunderstorms
contributed to flight disruptions but accounted for a modest
portion of the variance (R² = 0.157). The study highlights the
operational challenges thunderstorms pose to Nigeria's
aviation sector, with increased delays, cancellations, and
diversions, although not consistently across all airports. The
findings underscore the need for enhanced weather monitoring,
staff training, and investment in meteorological infrastructure
to mitigate thunderstorm-related disruptions in Nigerian
airports.