Mediating Effect Between Population Growth and Literacy Rate on Carbon Dioxide Emission (Co2 ) in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the impact of population growth and literacy on Nigeria's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions between 1981 and 2023. Carbon dioxide emissions (CEM) served as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables included working population growth (WPG), dependent population growth (DPG), literacy rate (LTR), and their interactions (WPGLTR and DPGLTR). The analysis employed descriptive statistics, unit root tests, bounds cointegration, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings indicate that WPG exerts a significant negative effect on CO₂ emissions in the medium and long run, while DPG has a weak but negative effect. LTR shows a short-run positive but insignificant effect on CEM and a long-run negative yet insignificant effect. The interaction term DPGLTR exhibits mixed effects: negative and insignificant in the short run, negative and significant in the long run, and positive but inconsequential in the short term. Overall, CO₂ emissions declined in both the short and long run as a result of WPG, DPG, LTR, and the DPGLTR interaction. However, the interaction between WPG and LTR was found to increase CO₂ emissions over time, both in the short and long run. The study concludes that literacy in Nigeria, while valuable, has limited direct influence on reducing carbon emissions. Accordingly, literacy initiatives should go beyond basic reading and writing to incorporate environmental literacy and green skills. Strengthening ecological awareness among the working-age population could help offset the environmental consequences of industrialisation and economic activities, thereby mitigating long-term carbon emissions.